Wild polling -- we're on it!

As everyone knows, polling results have been swinging pretty wildly, especially in Quebec.  And as you can imagine, we are putting them into the ProjectDemocracy model as fast as we can – check out the poll by poll projections for each riding.

The drop down menu under the riding map gives you a chance to see for yourself how each poll is shaking down and how they work in combination.

When it comes to making our picks, it will take a little more time is to decipher the implications of vastly different polling results, and we are not alone.  

The election pundits are all over this: CBC asks “So how do polling companies come up with their numbers? It turns out, they all do it differently, which is one big reason why there is so much variation.”    The funniest headline goes to the National Post which asks “Which one of these pollsters is off their meds? If Canadians weren’t already confused enough by the suddenly shifting events in the federal election, the latest polls will certainly fix that.”

Functionally, our focus is on Quebec.  Updated recommendations have been made in most other ridings where there is an opportunity for progressive voters to cooperate and avoid accidentally electing a Conservative.  Please remember that is the purpose of Project Democracy – we avoid weighing in where Conservative wins cannot be prevented or are very unlikely. 

Since much of the recent polling points to a new mix of top contenders in Quebec, but not necessarily Conservative wins, we may well be in a position to continue recommending “vote your preference”.  The key is to not miss ridings where vote-splitting could elect a Conservative.  So keep those cards & letters coming – we understand that there are major differences between what the regional-level polling says and what the people on the ground can tell us.

Also we are cueing up some local polling in a number of hard-to-call ridings across the country, so keep checking back. This has become a very exciting election with potential to usher in real change if we work together to make sure that we use all information possible to avoid accidentally electing Conservatives.