Saanich--Gulf Islands
Only 70.4 percent voter turnout in this riding in 2008.
Riding Projections
CandidatesThis riding is not one the model predicts well. The Liberals have a far weaker candidate than Briony Penn this time out, and Elizabeth May has been campaigning hard for a year in the riding. To account for these factors we are applying an adjustment to the model.
We had targetted this riding for local polling, and fortuitously an Oracle Research poll (note: commissioned by the local Green Party) was underway. It shows May and Lunn 'neck-to-neck' -- http://www.oraclepoll.com/Recent_Polls_and_News.html.
Progressive voters should rally around Elizabeth May as the best chance to defeat Conservative Gary Lunn. This is a riding that everyone will be watching in the lead up to the election -- please check back with us.
About the Riding Predictions
The riding predictions you see on Project Democracy are based on a model that uses the 2008 election results (with some exceptions noted in specific ridings) and current polling to help voters understand what the public polls probably mean in their constituency. Read more
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