Local polling underway to help with 8 hard-to-call races

It won’t be a surprise to anyone that there are some ridings where it is simply impossible to use regional polling results to deciper which party/candidate has the best shot at besting the Conservative candidate. This becomes especially challenging when the polls aren’t consistent, a situation which is putting a lot more ridings into question.

Over the weekend we identified over a dozen such.  We’ve used data from a few publicly available riding-level polls (NTV/Telelink, Segma Recherce).  And, with limited funds, we have commissioned professional polling in another eight local ridings which we hope will help us make a pick. In the meanwhile, until Friday, we have suspended our recommendations in:  Charlesbourg-Haute Sainte Charles, Levis-Bellechasses, Pontiac, Portneuf-Jacques Cartier, Saskatoon-Humboldt, Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River, Nunavut, Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca. 

Along with other local polls coming out, this data can also help analyze how well the regional polls translated to local outcomes.   If there are, and there likely will be cases where we can’t make an informed recommendation, the only option for Project Democracy is to abstain from making a recommendation. 

We’re thrilled and fascinated as country’s support for Harper’s Conservatives wanes!  As this evolves, we’re sticking to our knitting by keeping our attention on whether changing voter intention is creating new vote-splitting situations.