julia's blog

Local polling underway to help with 8 hard-to-call races

It won’t be a surprise to anyone that there are some ridings where it is simply impossible to use regional polling results to deciper which party/candidate has the best shot at besting the Conservative candidate. This becomes especially challenging when the polls aren’t consistent, a situation which is putting a lot more ridings into question.

Leaving national seat projections to the pundits. We focus on ridings where strategic voting can stop Conservative wins.

There is clearly a sea change happening out there.  We have seen a week of sustained growth for the NDP with an unprecedented surge in Quebec. New, interesting, important polls are rolling in fast and furious, but they aren't all saying the same thing.  Plugging EKOS' data into our model yields very different results than running Nanos' numbers.  And none of them take strategic voting into account. 

But Project Democracy is not about making seat projections -- we leave that to the pundits. Seat projections can inspire or deflate but we'll stick to our task -- protecting our democracy by providing riding-level information for how to cast a strategic vote where it can possibly avoid a Harper victory. 

We reviewed our ridings and updated picks on Monday and Tuesday, and will do so again as information warrants.  Thanks to the generosity of Project Democracy users, we are also doing some local polling in 'hard to call' ridings and will share results as soon as they are available. More funds would help us poll more ridings and get that info out, so please donate today at http://www.projectdemocracy.ca/contributeKeep in mind that races where Conservatives are safe or not in danger of winning we do not ask people to consider voting strategically.   

Check your riding to see if a strategic vote will make a difference, and get out to the polls on May 2! 

Wild polling -- we're on it!

As everyone knows, polling results have been swinging pretty wildly, especially in Quebec.  And as you can imagine, we are putting them into the ProjectDemocracy model as fast as we can – check out the poll by poll projections for each riding.

The drop down menu under the riding map gives you a chance to see for yourself how each poll is shaking down and how they work in combination.

When it comes to making our picks, it will take a little more time is to decipher the implications of vastly different polling results, and we are not alone.  

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